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Exit Analysis

Knowing when to exit a trade is arguably more important than knowing when to enter. The Exit Analysis page in Katalyst helps you evaluate the quality of your exits by comparing what you actually captured versus what was available.

The main chart on this page shows the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) for each trade. MFE is the furthest a trade moved in your favor before you closed it, while MAE is the furthest it moved against you. By plotting these values, you can see whether you are leaving money on the table (low capture of MFE) or taking too much heat before exiting (high MAE relative to your stop).

A scatter plot of MFE vs. actual P&L reveals your exit efficiency. If most of your winning trades cluster near a 1:1 line (you captured all of the move), your exits are excellent. If they cluster well below the line, you may be exiting too early. Conversely, if your losing trades show high MAE values, your stops might be too wide.

The Exit Analysis page also includes a “What If” simulator. You can set a hypothetical exit rule — for example, “exit at 50% of MFE” or “exit when MAE reaches 1R” — and see how your overall performance would have changed. This is a powerful way to test new exit strategies against your actual trade data before implementing them live.

Use exit analysis as part of your weekly review. Focus on your largest losers and see if there were warning signs (high MAE early in the trade) that you could have acted on. Over time, refining your exit rules based on this data will significantly improve your expectancy.